Recession Forecast

Everyone wants a cristall ball to forecast the future, especially in trading. Here I give you 3 easy to monitor indicators, which indicate in the past a recession ahead of time.

The 3 indicators are:

  1. 12-month moving average of housing starts,
  2. the Leading Index for the United States and
  3. the yield curve

1. Housing Starts

 

2. Leading Index for the United States

3. Yield curve

As you can see, these three indicators gave a good warning sign in the past. Every time they indicated a recession ahead of the official declaration.

This it is an easy and valuable indicator, which can help you a lot to indicate, whether to leave the bull market or to stay.

You should come back from time to time and check these 3 indicators.